You're not going to believe this.

Remember when I said my neighbor has started waking up very early in order to get to work in time? (Driving his car is out - the gasoline is too expensive. Now he either needs to take unreliable public transit into New Jersey, or carpool.) Well, I explained how his booming loud music wakes me up. Luckily, I didn't sleep tonight - too much stress over the oil situation - and so I was already awake to greet the pigeons in the morning - and my neighbor.

While he got his stuff together and got ready to leave, I dropped by to say hello. Now, when I use the word neighbor in NYC, it means something different than in other parts of the country. He literally lives 8 ft. away from my apartment - we're in the same complex. So chatting with him just meant opening my front door into my apartment hallway and exchanging a few words. During the conversation, it must have been while we were talking about the Giant's draft pick (he's pro it, I'm neutral. I'm still getting over the disappointment of the Eagles drafting another QB) that I walked over to his door to peek inside his apartment. You might call me a nudge, or a yenta, but I've got a curiosity streak. Probably the reason why I was interested in this oil problem to begin with.

Wall-to-wall oil cans. I am not kidding you. He must have had around a thousand gallons of oil in drums (or whatever they call the containers) in his apartment. They were stacked and filed against the wall. At current rates (one sec, digging out my calculator) of $4.25 a gallon, I'm assuming he spent about... $4,300 dollars on his little cache.

My mouth must've hung out a little, because he looked put off and asked me what was wrong. Obviously I indicated the drums of oil and he laughed. Seems he got involved in some speculative investments, and he figures that if the information I've been telling him is right, he should stock up on this stuff while it's cheap! He also said he's going to get a generator, in case he needs to power his apartment. I mean, this is crazy, right? We're in the middle of the biggest city in the United States and he's talking like a survivalist. According to him, he's going to sell the other half of the oil and make a mint on it. But he assured me he wouldn't take dollars as payment. Apparently, get this, he said the economy is going to collapse, and all paper money is going to be worthless. He said he's been doing research.

I asked him how he got all that oil up to the second floor. Apparently Cindy down the hall helped him, and they carted it in dollies up the elevator. Then he offered me a cup of coffee before he had to run to make the train. So, seeing as he seemed to have very definitive opinions about what to do in this state of emergency, I asked him about my gun conundrum (see yesterday's post). He was very supportive of the decision, and said he was looking into a firearm purchase himself.

Ironically, his approval for my gun-buying dilemma has shifting me in the opposite direction. He's going a bit over the deep end, and maybe this model of responding to the events isn't the one I want to buy into. I've watched too many zombie movies - I know that this whole survivalist, hoarding, gun-toting realm of ideas only leads down one road: Having your brains eaten. Obviously no one is eating brains here - this is real life! - but I don't want to get hurt, or hurt anyone.

Plus, to the people who gave me suggests about the guns (on the blog comments, AIM, etc), I'm taking your advice to heart. No guns for now. But maybe a sword? ;)

I'll keep you all updated, from the craziest little apartment complex in Washington Heights.

"If I had a shiny gun  / I could have a world of fun."
- Dorothy Parker

May 1st. Second night of the Oil Crisis. So, is this thing going to get worse? Let's assume it is. Let's assume that Escape from New York, and other great B-List action movies about escaping New York City, are prophetic. Let's assume that fairly soon, maybe within a couple weeks, this powder keg of a city might esplode.

So what can I do if things get hot? Charlotte and I have family in Philadelphia, but I imagine that cities will be cities will be cities. Especially on the eastcoast. And who knows? Maybe New York will get away relatively unscathed. Just need enough oil to power the subways. Oh! And we'll have to make more subways handicap accessible. Also! We'll have more space for pedestrians and bikers. I mean - imagine it: New York City completely car-less. It's enough to root for the oil collapse.

But this brings me to my current dilemma. If things do turn grisly, in this kind of city, they'll turn grisly fast. Look at examples of citywide riots - like the 1994 Crown Heights riot, or riots in other cities. If this get ugly, we might need a gun.

I know, the g-word is the one people have been trying to avoid. And sure, if you live in Nebraska, or even San Fransisco, maybe you don't need to worry about getting a gun. But if you're in this city, it's something to consider. So here are my problems: I haven't shot a gun since military camp years ago. I don't own a gun. My wife doesn't want a gun in the house. So I'm working through the possibilities, trying to figure something out that'll satisfy all these problems. I'll keep you all updated.

While the country is freaking out about Oil hitting $4.00, it turns out that there are advantages to living in New York. It's not winter, so I don't need to heat my house (anyway, the bill for heat comes at the end of the month - that gives me a full month to not worry). And since I don't drive a car anywhere, I don't really mind about filling the tank. Sure, I notice a few less cars on the streets, but the cadres of street taxis more than make up for the disappearing SUV or two.

My neighbor, who drives from Washington Heights over the bridge and into Jersey (what a shlep, right?) has a different take on things. "The Long Island Railroad doesn't go where I want, and NJ Transit is too unreliable. It was fifteen minutes late for work today. My boss bitched me out for half an hour," he said (I'm paraphrasing here, a little). So I mocked him for working in Jersey (expected anything else?) but I commiserated over the prices. He's carpooling now, which is a good thing, I think. Bring everyone closer together. Also, it'll teach my neighbor what I go through when I take the subway in the morning at rush hour (try not getting a seat for an hour).

On the subway note, Mayor Bloomberg said something or other about conservation - but he seemed to mostly be talking to the utilities. I mean, the city isn't going to raise the price of metrocards again, are they? Last I heard they had a surplus. And I'm paying 2$ a subway ride. Are you going to tell me that taking the A or 1 train from Washington Heights to 52nd costs more oil per person than 2$? That seems really unlikely. Well, if they increase prices, I'll keep you all updated.

On a personal note, because my neighbor is paranoid about missing his trains now, he's been waking up half an hour earlier on days he can't carpool. And he plays this bloody Encendia collection album over and over again - which always wakes me up. So I guess the oil situation has already started to affect me. Less sleep = blargh.

Lots of bad oil news in the papers, as though the world was revving up for an event. Maybe an event happening any day now? Hard to tell.

1) Ethiopian Rebels Kill 70 at Chinese-Run Oil Field, here:

Given China’s drive to extract oil wherever it can be found, Chinese workers are often dispatched to conflict zones, and several have been kidnapped in the volatile Niger Delta region of Nigeria. In other parts of Africa, like Zambia, China’s investments have brought resentment from local politicians and residents.

As for the workers kidnapped on Tuesday, the rebel group’s statement said: “O.N.L.F. forces rounding up Ethiopian military prisoners following the battle came across six Chinese workers. They have been removed from the battlefield for their own safety and are being treated well.” But the group did not say anything about releasing them.

2) BP Quarterly Down %17, and, unrelated, Baker Hughes (Oil Company) admits to bribery.

3) Exxon Mobil Up %10. Well, someone is making out well from the oil industry's turmoil.

Also, my advice about Nico: A man comes to eight random strangers - completely unconnected to either the media, the government, or the oil industry - and warns them of an upcoming event. It turns out that he's wanted by his national country (and possible oil interest) and he goes on a tear about those strangers "owing" him. If this doesn't smack slightly of a Ugandan style email scam, I don't know what does. He wants cash for coming clean? I say that the 8TSOC owe him nothing, until he gives details that can actually help prepare us for the 30th. Some vague warning about an oil-related crisis just isn't going to cut it.

EDIT: Some slightly good news in the hostage situation. The Chinese oil workers were released. It feels cheap to celebrate such a small victory - after all, it's a drop in a boiling pot of chaos that we're confronting - but the slightest good news should be announced.

First, is the women in this film and this picture one and the same? Second, here is my shot-by-shot of the video:

Establishing shot: Quick fade in, camera moving, grainy quality. Shot consistent to someone carrying the camera. Turn to look at shops with continual movement. We appear to be in a shopping district of some sort.

Next shot: B+W shot. Sideways. The back of someone's head. There's a white teapot. Restaurant is suggested, by teapot - possibly Chinese food. Sounds like the beeps of a backing-up truck in the background.

Next shot: Outdoors shot. Camera moving quickly, very blurry. We see (assumedly) the truck from the last shot. Apparently there are two cameras whose footage have been spliced together.

Next shot: B+W, sideways. Woman approaching. Wearing sunglasses. As she approaches, we hear someone ask, "How you doing." She approaches the table that the camera is facing.

Black for a moment (as the footage is being spliced?)

Next shot: We hear the "How you doing" from the previous shot. She is wearing what looks like a red turtleneck and a black jacket. She is wearing earrings.

Black for another moment.

Next shot: B+W, sideways. We see something on her shirt, near her stomach area. But it's hard to make out. She says something that is hard to make out because of her accent. It sounds like "follow me," she begins to stand up.

Black.

Next shot: B+W, sideways. She speaks, "Hope you're doing well. Been enjoying your..."

Black. "...vacation."

Next shot: B+W, sideways. "It's a good way to meet new friends..."

Black. "...get out and see the country."

Next shot: B+W, sideways. "I trust Grace is well."

Black. "And her mom."

Next shot: Close-up. "I'm not jealous of you, to tell you the truth." (Alt Possibility: "I'm a little jealous of you, to tell you the truth." Pause. "We're (Alt: You're) quite lucky to get away from this *very busy* time." (* indicates unsure transcription). "I'm here to tell you that..."

Next shot: B+W, sideways, very grainy, close-up. "...it's time to come home."

Next shot: "You have to cut your vacation short." She begins to lean back. She looks slightly happy, or satisfied as she says this. "I'm sorry." Note: The camera does pan back slightly in this shot - indicated that someone is manipulating the camera. (Though we don't see her hands, she may be holding it herself.) "But, we will..."

Next shot: B+W, sideways. "Be very generous in compensation."

Next shot: Close-up. She removes her sunglasses and looks down at the camera lens. She begins to speak in a foreign language. As she speaks, the shot switches between black, the sideways shot, and static. This continues for about 30 seconds, then we return to the original close-up shot and she replaces her sunglasses on her face. "Call me at my usual number," she says. "I'll come and pick you up and we'll get to talk. Goodbye."

Next shot: B+W, sideways. We see what is presumably her, and another person, walking away from the camera.

Next shot: We see a full restaurant, people eating. The shot moves through the restaurant, persumably from the director's POV. It appears to be a Chinese restaurant from this shot as well. The person leaves through the restaurant door (that has stickers for Visa and Mastercard on it) and steps outside.

Next shot: B+W, sideways. Same shot as the very first B+W shot, including the teapot and the man's back.

Next shot: Another outside walking through shopping district sequence. Walks to an intersection, some red flier is hanging off the traffic light. She turns to the left where there's a distinctive car (I'm not a car person, so I couldn't name the make/model) that she approaches. Across the street are a number of hazard cones. We hear a car alarm in the background. The film ends.

First, some good news from China, apparently they've found a way to make more fuel-efficient cars. Cause, ya know, we're all gonna freak when we can't fill up our tanks. (Pssst. I take public transportation exclusively.)

Chinese automakers, under pressure from the government to produce more fuel-efficient cars, unveiled an unexpectedly broad array of prototypes for fuel-cell cars, gasoline-electric hybrid cars and electric battery cars at the Shanghai auto show on Friday.

Then some bad news. Looks like political turmoil in Nigeria is creating problems with oil.

Armed rebel gangs have blown up pipelines, disabled pumping stations, and kidnapped over 150 foreign oil workers in the last year. Companies now confine employees to heavily fortified compounds, allowing them to travel only by armored car or helicopter.

The relationship between oil and politics isn't a new one. But when politics go sour, then the oil is going to start disappearing. When the oil starts disappearing, it's only going to encourage more events that made the oil disappear in the first place. It's a bitter cycle.

Steven E. Landsburg has a really interesting article in Slate today about how to reduce the use of cars. Basically, this new book, The High Cost of Free Parking (by Donad Shoup of UCLA) explains that having such undervalued costs for parking (like - almost free when you park on the street) encourages people to drive around and not take public transportation. If there was no more free parking - and we used that space for real estate, or driving space - it would encourage people to start taking public transportation. Which would be an economic way to keep people from wasting our scant resources. Something to think about.

Back in August of 2006, Harpers Magazine ran a well-written, interesting article about Peak Oil that sparked my interest in the problem of Peak Oil today. Of course, Peak Oil is just one of the many problems associated with our society's reliance with oil. There's also the hugely political dimension: As long as we need oil, we're beholden to oil barons and interests in the Middle East. If Iraq wanted to shut down our oil, they could have. Which is why many people blame the Iraq War (rightly or wrongly) on oil. Certainly, even if that wasn't the reason we went to war, it has become a huge part of the equation.

Anyway, I got a pdf of the article from Harpers Magazine. If you're interested in reading it, drop me an email at m.shinefield[AT]gmail[DOT]com and I'll send it over. It's 3.6MB, but it's definitely worth reading. It raises a number of interesting problems and some potential solutions.

Mother Jones reports about an upcoming Iraqi deal set for next month. I wonder if it'll make it that far, or if Nico didn't plan on this happening (or if this is exactly what he planned on):

The Iraqi oil deal set to go before the country's parliament next month could spell the end of the country as a nation state, and signals a major Bush victory in the war. The proposed law not only opens the door to the big international oil companies, but offers them lucrative contract deals, and even a place on the national oil board that will run the industry.

I'm thinking that this building from the pictures might actually be the 135 East 57th Street building (shown here). That means the building in the background is the Ritz. Also, it would explain why the shot in the first picture is taken from the midway mark going up - so that you don't see the tempietto in the picture (a defining feature of the 135 E. building, and a dead-giveaway). At the moment, this is my best guess, and if correct, it would confirm that the picture was taken in NYC. we still need to place the other building in the collection.

From the livejournal account, pachinko posted a photobucket with 19 pictures. The pictures are numbered 1-22, with three pictures missing (removed?) from the site. The link is here: http://s177.photobucket.com/albums/w222/Iniscool/?action=view&current=22-norvegicus.jpg

And here are my notes on them:

01: ksa-fracflow.jpg pipe system of some sort
02: iran-rigrecov.jpg man doing some sort of rig recovery?
03: opr-juyin.jpg picture of a man, clear view of a city street in the background
04: opr-sinoil.jpg young woman standing in front of a gate looking over a park. actually, that's NYC. I recognize the gates from Central Park (I remember, I was only dating my wife then, and we walked through the gates that Valentine's Day - http://www.christojeanneclaude.net/tg.html)
05: opr-tour.jpg apparently Nico?
06: opr-conf.jpg building (that looks so familiar to me, i just can't place it)
07: wtex-pipe.jpg truck and a pipe
08: wtex-anna.jpg woman standing in a field. oil rigger in background.
09: alb-jack3.jpg night scene, some kind of machinary
10: co-jack4a.jpg helicoptor
11: irantest.jpg two people covered with blanket/rugs
12: us-dec06.jpg picture from inside airplane. assumedly taken December 06.
13:
14: cotest.jpg airport picture. probably from the Denver trip?
15: cotest-bliz.jpg blizard, car stuck in the snow
16: cotest-inn.jpg an inn and cars coated by snow
17: nwt-hup.jpg a giant piece of machinery in the snow
18:
19: vib-pres.jpg a vibration recorder maybe? some instrument.
20: mtg-granda.jpg a map
21:
22: norvegicus.jpg apparently a person dressed as a norwegian rat. i can't read the language in the banner.

KSA (Saudia Arabia) is the owner of the the world's largest oil reserves. We rely on them heavily for our oil. Iran is obv. Iran. Not sure about OPR, but the photo set seems to be in NYC. Wtex is World Trade Exchange. alb might be Albany.

Something to think about: We're missing numbers 13, 18 and 21. Was something important in those photos that we weren't supposed to see? Why are any of these on a public account? And what was this? Some kind of fact-finding mission?